The race for the 2014 Senate

After two cycles in which the the GOP seemed poised to gain control of the upper chamber, 2014 might finally be the year. 

The next election will come six years after 2008, when many of the senators elected on Obama’s coattails will face reelection for the first time. The Obama wave helped elect Democratic candidates in traditionally conservative territory, but at this early stage in the cycle, Obama seems to be less of an asset. Moreover, some of these senators are from states Obama didn’t even win in 2008.

The most vulnerable are Mark Begich (Alaska), Mary Landrieu (Louisiana), Mark Pryor (Arkansas) and Tim Johnson (South Dakota). Jay Rockefeller (West Virginia) and Max Baucus (Montana) are also at risk. 

Of course, there is also the buzz saw of Republican primaries. Will Saxby Chambliss (Georgia) and Lindsey Graham (South Carolina) make it to the general, or will they fall to younger, flashier activist candidates, a la Dick Lugar? 

Growing up in Georgia, I can tell you the rumors of Saxby Chambliss’s demise are greatly exaggerated — or at least premature. For one, Georgians might grumble about Chambliss’s flirtation with tax increases, but finding a credible challenger without a history of doing the same would be difficult. 

Which brings me to my second point: finding any challenger will be difficult. Erik Erikson was a tantalizing prospect, but he has unequivocally ruled it out. Karen Handel, the almost-nominee-for-governor-turned-Komen-exec is plausibile, but her Planned Parenthood debacle while helping run Komen For The Cure is politically haunting.

Georgia might be a conservative bastion for now, but it seems every up-and-coming political star is from the Atlanta political scene — which is to say, Democratic. Georgia’s high volume of transplants coupled with its exploding immigrant and urban populations lead me to believe my state will soon become competitive; something like North Carolina or Florida, rather than Alabama, Tennessee or South Carolina.