November has demonstrated climate change and demographic shifts to be two long-foretold trends asserting a suddenly dramatic influence. Let’s focus on the latter.
Until Tuesday, Mitt’s campaign insisted “momentum” would put them over the top in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa. He lost them all. (Admittedly, Florida’s election mire has kept the state from declaring.) The Romney campaign wasn’t exactly bluffing, because polls show after the first debate Mitt did surge. But the whole story is, Mitt’s true surge was among white males. Since the Romney campaign largely (and for good reason) assumed hispanic and black voters would close ranks around the president, I believe they undervalued the magnitude by which these groups supported for Obama.
Coupled with Obama’s titanic ground operation, this demographic shift away from whites made it easy for Romneyworld to believe optimistic projections (some of which counted on fewer minorities voting than in 2008).
Perhaps the party will note this shift and adjust its tone (particularly on immigration) to accommodate the new political reality. To which, I’m sure officials in the Democratic party would say, buena suerte.
Adam Aton 